U.S. fresh pear exports are predicted to decline to their lowest levels since the 1980s during the year of 2024/25 (July 2024 through June 2025) since production is predicted to decrease by 20. U.S. pear production is estimated at 470,000 metric tons (tons) which is the lowest amount since 1967/68. This is because all three states that produce pear saw year-over-year reductions. It is expected that the United States is expected to decline to be the sixth largest pear grower in 2024/25 following being in fourth place prior to that as well as third during the majority of the previous decade. Due to the exceptionally low harvest, U.S. fresh pear exports are projected to reach 85,000 tons. That’s just half of the quantity that was exported in the past decade, which is at a similar amount as the fresh pear imports.

Production of Washington which is typically the most pear producing state, is expected to fall by 30% and produce lower in comparison to Oregon. The January freeze damaged pear trees, and the winter cold during spring bloom further reduced the amount. The adverse weather is a result of the decade-long decline in acres of Washington. Oregon production is expected to fall by 15% and California falling 17% as well as due to severe weather.

Because of the shortage of supplies that can be exported, U.S. fresh pear exports are predicted to fall by from 25,000 to 85,000 tons which is the lowest since 1988/89. For the first three months of the year’s marketing exports dropped by 40 percent in comparison to the same time frame in 2023/24. The majority of U.S. pear exports are headed to Canada as well as Mexico because pears are fragile and can be difficult to move over for long distances. In fact, the United States is the top exporter of these markets, with around 90 percent of the market for Mexico and 50% in Canada. Although there is a possibility that United States may lose some market share by 2024/25 however, it’s not clear if other vendors can make up the space.

U.S. imports are projected to increase only slightly, up to 80,000 tonnes despite exports from the country dipping sharply, while other countries aren’t expected to increase their exports significantly. Even though prices that are high in U.S. prices could attract Southern Hemisphere supplies that are typically destined for different markets (including Russia and the European Union and Russia), U.S. import volumes have been stable over the last decade, despite similar supply-related shocks. Although China is expected to see more exportable goods, the shipments into US consumers United States are unlikely to dramatically increase since the majority of supplies come from Asian types of pear. They can’t be easily substituted with U.S. pear varieties. The latter experienced the greatest decline in production like Bosc and the Green Anjou. This year, close to 30% of the domestic supply were devoted to processing. In light of price increases in the fresh market as well as a large inventory of canned pear the pears will more likely be offered at the open market this year. Imports will not increase to processors.

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