The severe shortage of rain this winter has a negative impact on the agriculture sector in Pakistan as farmers anticipate reduced yields as well as possible rises in the cost of food. The country has experienced nearly 70% less rain than usual, which has led to an acute shortage of water for irrigation particularly in regions that are rain-fed that rely on seasonal rainfall.

The drought is affecting winter fruits, crops, and other vegetables, with the most severe impact in Punjab as well as Sindh as the major food production provinces. As per Sardar Sarfraz Chief Meteorologist for the Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) this winter, Pakistan received an average of 67% less rain than average this winter.

Sindh was the worst hit of the losses, registering an increase of 90% in precipitation, whereas Punjab was able to record an increase of 69 in rainfall, as per PMD information from September 2024 until January 28th of 2025. Other regions experienced deficits: Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan had 64% less rainfall, Gilgit-Baltistan was down 32%, and Pakistan-administered Kashmir saw a 72% reduction.

Sarfraz said he was hopeful of the possibility of a “good rainfall spell” during the winter months to help reduce these gaps. Sarfraz attributed the fluctuating rainfall to global warming and climate-related meteorological phenomena. He said, “Pakistan’s winter rainfall is generally good, or over the limit during the time that you consider that the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index is at its highest but significantly less in the event that it is negative.” NAO has a negative value.”

The current drought and the increasing temperatures and extreme heat, are challenging Pakistan’s agricultural sector that is home to 38 percent of its workforce. Waqar Rizvi who is secretary chief of the Kisan Board of Pakistan, declared that the wheat crop may see a 30% to 35% decrease when compared with 2024. “Over 60 percent of Pakistan’s wheat crop is still in the phase of flowering and grain formation and is therefore extremely susceptible to drought” Rizvi told Anadolu.

Other crops like maize, sugarcane, potato and lentils, are also under threat. “There’s already an increase of 50% in sugarcane production” Rizvi said. Mahmood Shah, the President of the Sindh Abadgar Association, indicated the possibility that the production of wheat would decrease from last year, due to the lack of rainfall as well as lower rates of sowing.

It is reported that the Fruit and Vegetable Exporters Association observed a decrease of 35% in production of citrus. This affected exports of kinnow. Rizvi has criticized the absence of a uniform policy on agriculture in a statement that reads, “One year, authorities provide farmers with incentives and guarantees of purchases, but the following year, the situation is completely opposite.”

Rapid urbanization, as well as uncontrolled construction of housing are degrading Pakistan’s agricultural land. It is estimated that the Kisan Board of Pakistan estimates between 20 and 30 percent of Punjab’s agricultural farmland has been turned into industrial and residential zones. Punjab makes up 65 percent of the nation’s food production. The disappearance of farms could have the long-term impact on the security of food.

Source: AA