It was a well-balanced collection of California walnuts in the fall of this year however, it wasn’t in a good way. “We were able to finish quickly as, statewide the harvest is down between 28 and 30 percent compared to this year’s crop,” says Bill Carriere of Carriere Family Farms. He says that the State was on the verge of an unprecedented crop in 2023. However, the decrease in the volume of production is a stinging. “As as an business, we weren’t aware of this drastic drop in production coming,” Carriere adds. California Agricultural Production Statistics reported their survey of the crop in September and estimated the amount of crops dropping by 824,000 tons from 2023, to just 670,000 tonnes this year. “At the beginning, we did not consider that the production could be reduced this substantially. After a few weeks into harvesting and we realized that it was likely to be smaller than the estimate of the survey.” The number that will come out is between 580,000 and 600,000. Because of the less productive crop and the high demand, sales have been swift. The industry expects to sell all inventory before September, just in time to harvest 2025 and shipping.

There is no way to determine what caused the decline in production but industry experts believe that it is due to an underlying combination of lower chill periods, the hot summer days during summer and a few Pistillate Flower Abortion (PFA) (PFA) is the shedding of pistillate flowering nuts during the bloom. PFA can be triggered by the over-production of pollen. Conditions during flowering are vital and could not have been perfect this spring.

Price hike

The wholesale prices have increased by a third because of the short supplies. The last time, the prices for growers for the primary type, Chandler, averaged between $0.40 between $0.40 and $0.45/lb. This year, farmers should get $1.00/lb. or more for the best quality. Growers will pay more. increases almost make up the decrease in yield but following a few difficult years which saw prices drop the growers needed greater. Recently, between 10,000 to 60,000 acres of walnut forests have been cut down in California because they’re loss creating. “Prices have been so low that we’ve not seen a many new plantations,” shares Carriere. In the meantime, farmers have switched to different crop varieties.”

Demand outpaces supply

Recently, in recent years, the California walnut industry has placed the focus on growing consumption, and is achieving results. Because of the health benefits of walnuts, demand from consumers is increasing. “We’ve seen a tremendous increase in demand both in the US as well as overseas. But, at this time there’s not enough of the product to meet customers.” A normal year approximately one third of the production is sold within the U.S. market and two-thirds exports. Because of the low availability more of it will likely to remain in the market in the U.S. this year. Outside of the U.S., California walnuts make their way to several countries across the world. “Germany is the largest importer, yet our business sells its products to a minimum of 25 countries around the world,” says Carriere. A lower supply can limit export possibilities as well as a weak U.S. dollar doesn’t help neither. “However the risk of tariffs are a greater concern for the U.S. Should the U.S. installs tariffs on imports, there’s an actual risk of retaliation.” Another issue is the return of strikes at port facilities in the East Coast as of January 15. A wage hike was discussed for port employees during October, the possibility of automating was not talked about. The Union is seeking to stop automated technology because they believe it eliminates jobs. “Our ports are incredibly inefficient. The ports in Europe as well as Asia ports, they are automated, and thus operate better.” According to the Container Port Performance Index 2023 The port located in Philadelphia ranks as the top port within the U.S which is only 55th out of the top 100 the most effective ports across the world. Ports like Oakland which is the place where the largest portion of walnuts arrive places 397th.

Competitors in Chile as well as China

While California walnuts are renowned for their quality however, they face competition from other market. Chile is the most significant rival, however it is also a South American country also experienced an extremely light crop in their growing season, which began in the month of May. China is a different major rival that exports lots of nuts to Middle East and Turkey and some even to Europe. “Chinese walnuts are more hefty and more affordable than California walnuts. We remain competitive by providing the highest quality product.”

For more information:

Bill Carriere

Carriere Family Farms

Tel: (+1) 530-934-8200

[email protected]

www.carrierefarms.com