The global macadamia industry is showing strong signs of recovery and growth, with price increases and improved market positioning helping stabilize a sector that had faced challenges since the COVID-19-induced economic downturn. Strategic marketing efforts have positioned macadamia nuts as a mainstream ingredient, boosting demand and attracting interest from product manufacturers and health-conscious consumers.

South Africa, the world’s largest macadamia producer, began its 2025 harvest in early March, which will continue until mid-winter. Global Macadamias, a key player in the industry, announced price increases of up to 37%, depending on nut quality and crackout style. CEO Shane Hartman noted that these increases are much needed after years of market instability and falling prices.

Macadamias are sold primarily in two forms: in-shell and kernel. China and Vietnam remain the top buyers of in-shell nuts, while kernels are in demand in Western markets, Japan, Taiwan, and South Korea. While in-shell demand recovered quickly post-pandemic, Hartman said that kernel demand has gained momentum recently, offering greater market stability. Kernel demand is less elastic, making it more attractive to product developers investing in new long-term applications.

The rise in kernel demand is driven by innovation in the ingredients and confectionery industries, with manufacturers incorporating macadamias into new product lines. This development promises more stable, long-term demand. Hartman emphasized that steady pricing is vital to sustaining this growth and providing market confidence after years of volatility.

South Africa’s macadamia crop is projected to grow by 8% annually as new orchards mature. However, due to adverse weather conditions, the 2025 crop is expected to increase by a slightly lower rate—around 7%—reaching approximately 93,000 tons in shell.

Globally, the market outlook remains positive, but potential challenges exist. Australia, the second-largest producer, has experienced crop damage from Ex-Tropical Cyclone Alfred, likely reducing its harvest. Meanwhile, global trade policies could also affect the sector. Uncertainty remains around the potential revocation of the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) by the U.S., which could lead to tariffs on South African macadamia exports. However, Hartman noted that the U.S. produces very little macadamia, so any tariff risk may be limited.

Efforts by Global Macadamias, the South African Macadamia Growers’ Association (SAMAC), and the World Macadamia Organisation have elevated macadamias beyond a niche category. This repositioning has expanded market reach and reduced risk, though Hartman acknowledged that higher production volumes mean peak prices—such as the $6/kg in-shell seen in 2020—are unlikely to return.

While the industry outlook is positive, some growers still feel the effects of previous downturns. Hartman stressed the importance of maintaining competitive pricing for long-term sustainability. He added that the current harvest season shows promising signs, with buyers expressing growing confidence in macadamias as a premium, high-quality ingredient.

With strategic marketing, expanding markets, and increasing production, the macadamia industry appears well-positioned for continued growth and long-term stability.

For more information:
Lindi Botha
Global Macadamias
Tel: +27 82 494 8005
Email: [email protected]
www.globalmacadamias.co.za