Chinese Year 2025, Chinese New Year 2025 and a new carrier alliances are set to shake up supply chains

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Chinese New Year (CNY) 2025 is on the 29th of January which is just three weeks away. It will be closely with the introduction of brand new alliances with carriers. The timing could intensify regular disruptions to supply chains that are caused by blank sailings related to CNY because the switch from the existing alliance service to new networks may further affect capacity and the scheduling.

For the Asia-North American West Coast Trade Lane there is a substantial capacity boost anticipated for the four-week CNY timeframe (the week preceding CNY as well as the following three weeks). In 2025, the current deployment will be nearly 1.34 million TEU. That is the highest amount in the time period being studied and beating even the peak demand conditions for 2021. The increase is year-on-year of 33.3 percentage and an increase of 34.1 percent increase compared to the average of 2016 to 2019, despite the absence of any evidence that can justify the increase.

The 2025 scheduled blank sailings comprise less than 9.0 percent of capacity. That’s one of the lowest percentages across the time. This contrasts with 22.8 percent in 2024, and the average of 18.3 percentage for the 2016 to 2019. In the peak demand in 2021, the number of empty sailings amounted to 10.7 percentage. In normal conditions, carriers are likely to announce more blank sailings during the upcoming weeks in order to handle extra capacity. This is similar to the dramatic capacity reductions in the last minute observed in 2023 as well as 2024.

But, the launch of brand new networks through MSC, Gemini Cooperation, and Premier Alliance adds a layer of uncertain. The carriers may choose to phase vessels onto these services over cutting capacity, possibly creating fewer blank sails that are typical. This could lead to unpredictable supply chain situations in the course of and following CNY 2025.

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Source: The Plantations International Agroforestry Group of Companies