As per EastFruit analysts, by 2023, Uzbekistan will be able to harvest a record onion harvest. Forecasts for a potential rise in production of onions differ widely, however the most optimistic scenario spoken by market participants from Uzbekistan as well as local experts, suggests the possibility of a growth in yield by 30-40 percentages over the typical indicator for the year, though some believe that it could double.

In the average, 1.2-1.4mn tonnes of onions each year, as per FAOSTAT the increase is 30%. This will result in an increase of 400,00 tons of onions. This is an enormous amount. Keep in mind that Uzbekistan exports an average of around 200,000 tons of onions every year. If it is a an optimistic scenario, the country will be required to export 600,000 tons of onions from the country by 2023/24.

The chart above shows that. the graph above There isn’t a clear impression of a massive yield from the current price at present. Furthermore, prices have remained relatively stable for five weeks. This can be explained by the extremely high levels of onion exports following the restrictions on exports have been lifted, and will remain up to the end in June at a minimum. We have already written that from March to June of 2023, over 221 thousand tonnes of onion were exported from Uzbekistan this is a record amount over such a brief period of duration.

At the time onion harvesting hadn’t been started in nations where the climate was colder. The situation today is totally and completely different. The prices of onions are soaring even on the Ukrainian market. It has seen the loss of more than the 80 percent of its area of onion production because of the bursting and destruction of Kakhovka Dam by Russian invaders as well as the looting and destruction of irrigation and storage lines and sorting lines, as well as agriculture machinery, and other components that are used in production processes within the temporarily-occupied territory in the Kherson and Zaporizhzhia areas of Ukraine. In the meantime the primary onion crop that is grown in Ukraine along with other onion-producing nations in Europe like Poland and in the Netherlands and Germany is yet to have been picked. So the pressure on prices has just begun.

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