A combination of low orange supply, coupled with a high demand caused by the high temperature, resulted in a dramatic rise in prices for oranges, both the fresh and processing segment. This has led to unprecedented prices for the sector and the average is currently exceeding a record in real terms. It is basing it upon the Cepea series, which started in the month of October.

Despite an average harvest and a shortage of orange juice, stocks in processing firms are lower, resulting in an issue where supply is not enough to meet demands. Pear oranges on the market for fresh fruits are sold with a price of BRL 58.90 each box, which is an rise in the amount of 45.9 percentage compared with the identical period of last year (in real in terms). It’s the top nominal cost for the Cepea series, as well as the fourth-highest in real terms in November. This is a significant increase, with the average averaging levels that have not been previously seen since the beginning of March in 2019.

The prices of the late variety of pear oranges as well as other varieties that are supplied to processing industries are on average BRL 49.04 for a box during November. That’s a huge increase of 60.3 percent compared to the month of November 2022 in actual terms which is also the highest amount in the entire range.

The dynamics of supply and demand are likely to maintain the supply of Brazil below demand till the harvest is over. Furthermore, the next season will likely have limited availability in the event that supplies of orange juice are not able to replenish at the conclusion of the 2023/24 season. If the 2024/25 crop is characterized by lower than average yields it could lead to an emergency situation with an increased chance of decreases in stock levels if the harvest is not up to expectations.

Source: www.cepea.esalq.usp.br