At the start of the 2025/2026 campaign, Egyptian orange exporters were cautiously optimistic, expecting a return to stability after several turbulent seasons. Industry players anticipated a “normal” year, supported by improved fruit sizing, calmer domestic demand from processors, and what appeared to be a manageable logistics situation following earlier disruptions in the Red Sea. Exporters were preparing for a long, balanced season stretching from December to June, with strategies focused on value, diversified markets, and controlled pricing structures.
However, just a few days before the season’s kick-off, that sense of reassurance gradually gave way to a far more complex reality, where many of the risks thought to be under control resurfaced in unexpected ways. According to Amgad Nessem, export manager of El Teriak Farms, the gap between expectations and reality became evident early on.
“We started the season with expectations of abundant production and high quality, but things did not go as planned. There was a clear imbalance between supply and demand. Production volumes were strong, but marketing channels faced geopolitical and logistical obstacles. This led to periods where fruit accumulated, and prices dropped below what we had hoped for at the beginning,” Nessem states.
© El Teriak Farm
From the outset, exporters were navigating a tense and uncertain environment. Nessem describes the early phase of the season as unusually slow: “November and December were cold in terms of market activity. This is due to the delayed coloring of Navel oranges, leading to a 15-day delay of the season and a slower entry into the European market. We simply lost the advantage of the early market entry.”
As the season moved into January, another challenge emerged: “China returned strongly to production after a few weaker seasons. This reduced Egypt’s share in East Asian markets, where we had become a key supplier in recent years. Suddenly, we were facing renewed competition in markets that had been more open to us,” the exporter explains.
The difficulties of the Navel campaign went further, in other markets such as Europe and Russia. Nessem: “The two-week delay effectively shortened the export window for Navel oranges to around 25 days. At the same time, Europe was experiencing very cold weather and snowfall, which significantly reduced consumption. Demand dropped to unusually low levels, and the market simply chose to skip Egyptian Navel oranges this season.”
© El Teriak Farm
On top of that, Valencia oranges arrived earlier than usual, and European buyers generally prefer them. All these factors combined meant that the Navel campaign struggled to recover after its slow start,” the exporter adds.
The commercial consequences were significant in Egypt, in Nessem’s words: “Many growers were holding back their harvests, expecting better prices, while exporters had already purchased fruit at relatively high levels. In the end, this created a situation where large volumes remained unsold, and the financial pressure increased across the supply chain.”
Then came the most significant turning point, in February, affecting Valencia oranges, with the escalation of the crisis affecting shipping routes through the Red Sea. “This was the defining moment of the season,” Nessem emphasizes. “The disruption in navigation through Bab El Mandab forced shipments destined for Asia and the Gulf to reroute around the Cape of Good Hope.”
The consequences were immediate and severe, reminiscent of the height of the first Red Sea crisis in 2023-2024. “Transit times increased from around 15 days to more than 40 days. Shipping costs rose dramatically, and for some sensitive shipments, the risk of spoilage became a real concern.”
© El Teriak Farm
This logistical disruption triggered a chain reaction in global markets. According to Nessem, “Large volumes of oranges that were originally intended for Asia had to be redirected to Europe. This caused massive congestion in European ports and a sharp increase in supply there. At the same time, adverse weather conditions led to many shipments arriving simultaneously, which pushed supply far beyond demand and caused prices to decrease quickly.”
The exporter highlights how this oversupply situation eroded profitability across the sector: “The European market became saturated. Even though demand was there, it could not absorb the sudden surge in volumes. Prices declined rapidly, and exporters had very little room to maneuver.”
Adding to these pressures was the broader macroeconomic environment. “Global inflation played a major role this season,” Nessem notes. “Consumer purchasing power declined, and buyers became much more price-sensitive. This put additional pressure on exporters’ margins, as the focus shifted heavily toward lower-priced offers.”
© El Teriak Farm
Despite these challenges, the season has not been without resilience. Nessem offers a nuanced assessment of the different orange varieties. “The Navel orange season can be described as average. It faced coloring issues at the beginning and shipping pressures toward the end, but overall, it managed to pass with minimal losses compared to what could have happened.”
“In contrast, the Egyptian Valencia campaign is in the eye of the storm. It is the main variety for export to Asia, and its exposure to the Red Sea crisis is currently very evident. We are trying, by all possible means, to open new markets in Africa and recently developed markets such as Brazil to absorb the surplus,” he continues.
Looking ahead to the close of the season, Nessem expects a mixed outcome. “In terms of export volumes, we may end up with figures close to last year’s. But the net profits for exporters and growers will definitely be lower than last season due to the high logistics costs and the price pressures we have experienced,” the exporter concludes.
For more information:
Amgad Nessem
El Teriak Farms
Tel: +201 207 976 920
Email: [email protected]
www.elteriakfarms.com