Global almond and walnut exports are forecast to increase in the 2026/27 season, while pistachio shipments declined in 2025/26, according to the October 2026 Tree Nuts: World Markets and Trade report from the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA).

Almonds
Global almond output is forecast to rise 1 per cent to 1.7 million tons (shelled basis) in 2026/27, marking a third consecutive year of growth. Larger harvests in the European Union and Australia are expected to offset a decline in the United States.

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EU output is projected to increase due to higher yields in Spain and Portugal, while Australia’s expansion reflects an increase in harvested area. U.S. yields are expected to decline, with harvested area remaining unchanged.

Global almond exports are forecast to increase 2 per cent to a record 1.2 million tons, supported by shipments from the U.S. and Australia. EU imports are projected at 275,000 tons, followed by India at 180,000 tons, while China’s imports are expected to decline to 130,000 tons.

Walnuts
Global walnut output is forecast to remain at 2.8 million tons (in-shell basis) in 2026/27. Increased harvests in China and Ukraine are expected to offset lower yields in the U.S. and EU, where heat and drought affected orchards.

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China’s walnut harvest is projected to reach a record 1.6 million tons, up 7 per cent from the previous season, accounting for nearly 60 per cent of global output. Xinjiang Province contributes more than half of China’s harvest, while Yunnan Province accounts for another 40 per cent.

Xinjiang benefits from low humidity, irrigation supplied by mountain snowmelt, and terrain suitable for mechanised harvesting. In Yunnan, mountainous conditions limit mechanisation, while rising labour costs and declining farm-gate prices have affected harvesting decisions.

Global walnut exports are forecast to increase 1 per cent to a record 1.4 million tons. China’s shipments are expected to reach 675,000 tons, maintaining its position as the leading exporter for a third consecutive year.

Chinese exports have more than tripled over the past five years, with increased shipments to the EU, Turkey, the United Arab Emirates, Kazakhstan, and Kyrgyzstan. Shelled walnuts accounted for over 70 per cent of this export growth.

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Pistachios
Global pistachio output declined 4 per cent to 1.1 million tons (in-shell basis) in 2025/26. Lower harvests in Turkey and Syria, associated with the off-year of the alternate-bearing cycle, outweighed increased output in the U.S., EU, and Iran.

World pistachio exports declined 11 per cent to 572,000 tons as reduced shipments from Iran, Turkey, and Syria outweighed higher U.S. exports.

The USDA report does not include 2026/27 pistachio forecasts because U.S. harvest data for that season was not yet available.

To view the full report, click here.

For more information:
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